Thursday, September 15, 2011

You know sh!t is going to happen when ...

I have just received a letter from AIA saying that all my business with them are now transferred to AIA Singapore. Does this mean that the much anticipated financial maelstrom is coming up the corner, just next year as expected?

During the 2008 blowup, AIG, the parent company of AIA was on the brink of choking to death under a heap of toxic CDS, stroking fears that AIA would be taken along with it. By cutting ties to both AIA and AIG, perhaps they are hoping that this will prevent clients of AIA Singapore from running off to their competitors in fear when AIA and AIG blow up again in 2012.

Maybe 2012 will be really doomsday, but without the multi-million dollar Hollywood CG effects.

Ahhh this will be sweet.

FX Trade Diary 14 Sept 2011

EUR/USD


14/9/2011 2323 Hours :
On the hourly, a slow upward channel has formed over the first 3 days of the week. I had put a pending sell at 1.382, SL 1.3846, TP 1.3686. I am not really expecting the hit the full TP but the supply at 1.382-1.384 should give a decent retracement for a intraday trade.

EUR/GBP


14/9/2011 2355 Hours :

Taking a pending short at 0.8715, SL 0.8725, TP 0.866 for a quick intraday pullback trade. The prices is likely to bounce off 0.872, at least good for 50 pips.

GBP/JPY


15/9/2011 0010 Hours :
The bottom had fell out of this pair, and it looks like a short only upon retracement trade. Any long position in this pair will not be a good idea. The nearest supply is at 123.8-124.22. The price is moving away from the 21 & 55 MA, indicating an acceleration in the drop in price. It will be crazy to long now without knowing where the demand is. RSI and CCI also shows that momentum is still locked into a downtrend. This is clearly bearish but unfortunately there isn't a good point of entry into a short position until the supply area at 124-ish.


Tuesday, September 13, 2011

FX Trade Diary 13 Sept 2011

USD/SGD


0015 Hours :

Price is moving towards supply at 1.241-1.245. I am waiting this to coincide with the weakening of the US$. This will likely to signal the bounce in EUR/USD.


AUD/CAD


0023 Hours :

I am looking forward to a bounce in the demand at 1.021-1.023. The Aussie dollar had took a beating for the last 3 trading sessions, and had burned through the demand at 1.03. It is not a fresh level and might just burn towards 1.013-1.016.

Monday, September 12, 2011

FX Trade Diary 12 Sept 2011

A fresh start to the trading week, hopefully it will be the time to recover my losses on Friday.

EUR/USD


0428 hours :

Chart clean up. Waiting for a clear retracement, somewhat similar to the GBP/USD setup.

GBP / USD


0435 hours :
Chart clean up.
2350 hours :

Prices look like it will bounce off 1.572-1.579. The demand zone looks too wide and it's hard to tell whether the trade will work or not. I will be interested in a buy to 1.597.


USD/CAD


1934 hours :
My pending sell order at 1.0025. SL 1.0065. TP 0.775 triggered. It manually closed out the trade for +58 pips went the price stall to stall near 0.996. I will be still interested in shorting at 1 - 1.0025, so I re-entered the order.

Friday, September 9, 2011

FX Trade Diary 9 Sept 2011

I have decided to start blogging my daily FX thoughts as a way to keep track of random thoughts in my head. Hopefully this will help me to be a profitable trader soon.

Watching candles forming is really boring, so blogging might help to keep me awake and maybe sane.

EUR/USD


0005 hours :
I was waiting for a retracement to supply at 1.419-1.421 but prices kept falling like a brick towards demand at 1.376-1.383. Getting towards 1.38 is a certainty but without a deep retracement after massive 600 pips sell off is mind blowing. Looks like a steep drop on H4 is coming but hopefully at least with some sort of retracement.

I had entered a pending sell at 1.4064, SL 1.4081, Target 1.38. It's a case of drop base drop at 1.405-1.41, not a nice base due to the CHF driven rally-after-shock but let's give it a shot. A straight sell to 1.38 is too risky.

1847 hours :
It's already at 1.38. I need to rethink my pending order during the weekend.


USD/CAD

0005 hours :
This pair is stuck in limbo, in-between two zones. RSI and MAs are flat, confirming that prices are not moving much. Ignoring this pair for now.



CHF/JPY

0005 hours :
88.39-88.57 is a old demand zone. I am expecting this to take a little bounce here back to supply at 89.98-90.28, which will make a nice sell off, as it is a fresh area. But given the crazy Swiss policies changes recently, I am not going to touch this pair.



EUR / GBP



0005 hours :
I had missed my pending sell at 0.885 for a measly 8 pips, causing a hindsight loss of 150 pips. Not to be dishearten, I have a pending long at 0.8655, SL 0.8635, TP 0.886. This is going to be a swing trade.

1848 hours :
The pending buy triggered. Thinking of moving my SL to BE. A bit premature and I don't feel like losing a single cent more this week. But stick to the trading plan. It's kind of hard to do that. 0.8645 is another strong demand level, so even if it goes through 0.8655, there is still one more chance to break even. Let's see if NY can push prices back up.



AUD/USD

1830 hours :
The uptrend looks good and still intact, and the recent USD strength had pushed AUD/USD down towards a demand area. I am looking for a long at 1.0486 for push back up towards 1.07. I am setting up a pending buy at 1.0486, SL 1.0455, TP 1.0486.



GBP/JPY

1921 hours :
I don't really like the way prices are moving today. The bounce from supply at 122.68-123.5 looks weak but could take it all the way to 126 or even 128.5. Staying off this pair for now.

Sunday, June 12, 2011

Gimme Rs300

A trading mentor shared with us this story, which reminds me that I should not forget what I am working so hard for.

A man came home from work late, tired and irritated, to find his 5-year-old son waiting for him at the door...

Son: "Daddy, may I ask you a question"

Daddy: "Yeah sure, what is it?"

Son: "Dad, how much do you make an hour"

Daddy: "That's none of your business. Why do you ask such a thing?" he said angrily

Son: "I just want to know. Please tell me, how much do you make an hour?"

Daddy: "I make Rs. 500 an hour"

"Oh", the little boy replied, with his head down. Looking up, he said,

"Dad, may I please borrow Rs. 300?"

The father was furious, "if the only reason you asked that is so you can borrow some money to buy a silly toy or other nonsense, then march yourself to your room and go to bed. Think why you are being so selfish. I work hard everyday for such this childish behavior"

The little boy quietly went to his room and shut the door. The man sat down and started to get even angrier about the little boy's questions.

How dare he ask such questions only to get some money? After about an hour or so, the man had calmed down, and started to think:"May be there was something he really needed to buy with that Rs. 300 and he really didn't ask for money very often!"

The man went to the door of little boy's room and opened the door. "Are you asleep, son?" He asked.

"No daddy, I'm awake," replied the boy.

"I've been thinking, may be I was too hard on you earlier", said the man, "It's been a long day and I took out my aggravation on you. Here's the Rs.300 you asked for" The little boy sat straight up, smiling "oh thank you dad!" He yelled.

Then, reaching under his pillow he pulled some crippled up notes.The man, seeing that the boy already had money, started to get angry again.

The little boy slowly counted out his money, then looked up at his father.

"Why do you want money if you already had some?" the father grumbled.

"Because I didn't have enough, but now I do," the little boy replied."Daddy I have Rs. 500 now. Can I buy an hour of your time? Please come home early tomorrow. I would like to have dinner with you"

MORAL

It's just a short reminder to all of us working so hard in life. We should not let time slip through our fingers without having spent some time with those who really matter to us, those close to our hearts.

If we die tomorrow, the company that we are working for could easily replace us in a matter of days. But the family & friends we leave behind will feel the loss for the rest of their lives. And come to think of it, we pour ourselves more into work than to our familyand friends. An unwise investment indeed!

Friday, May 6, 2011

More on housing,inflation and FT

Expensive public housing is a pain in the ass indeed.

The housing problem was made much worse by the incoming hot money from the foreign printing presses. Ours are not so bad, China, Australia and Hong Kong are over heating to the point of craziness. The common people are not talking about buying properties but renting them instead. This is inflation playing itself out plus property speculation.

So why do prices go up, and have to go up?

This one you have to go back to the basics of Keynesian economy policy implementation. You need a slight inflation to keep the game of fiat currency going. This is a game we all play. Due to the effects of inflation, the price of everything goes up.

The game is over when prices actually goes down, which is a situation that Japan has been facing for the last few decades. Let's use the scenario that prices actually falls for new flat. What will happen?

Older flats losses value as a new flat is cheaper, effectively wipe out billions in value meant for retirement for ALL home owners.

People will perceive that buying a flat is a negative asset, it depreciates over time and losses value. So the only way is NOT to buy a flat but to rent housing instead.

This also creates a downward spiral momentum on public housing prices. Why do current home owners want to hold on to their loss making flats when they should go and buy a cheaper and newer flat? This will cause the depreciation in value to accelerate, creating the first made in Singapore housing crisis.

The problem is more like the prices are increasing too rapidly, and COV is something that needs to be tame. If there is a party that saw this, and have a practical solution to it, I am all ears. Unfortunately, as I kept humming, the opposition didn't understand economics, have a poor grip on reality and in turn have terrible short sighted populist policies. The impact is very serious. People are going to lose jobs, life savings, and worse yet, in the current global economy climate, this is a mistake we cannot afford to make.

Personal background
I am a IT engineer, whose field is flooded with foreigners. We are out numbered 1 : 20 or maybe more.

In my department, the number of PRs, new citizens and EP holders completely out numbered born-in-Singapore Singaporeans. Does that mean I should go around bashing foreigners for jacking up prices in resale flat, taking up space in MRT or stealing your potential life partner? No. As I said, these are the new Citizen in the making, well over the majority settled down here. Singapore is a country made up of foreigners workers and immigrant.

I got a colleague who was also cursing and swearing at PAP all the time for years. Then this week, he announced happily that he is going to marry a PRC, going to sell his flat to a new citizen making a handsome sum in the progress. I was like WTF, people changed over night.

Again to talk about opposition policies, many of them are not new, and have known undesirable effects too. There is little information on how to handle the various issues that are bound to happen if the policies are implemented. This is akin to sell first worry later, very irresponsible. It's like the iPhone 4 with the antenna problem.

FT

More foreigners keeps the game running. Someone else's loss is another's gain. Look the other way, does losing 1.5 million FT solve the problem? It will only create a new set of problem, probably more undesirable in the long run.

A loss in advantage over our neighbours will send us downwards relatively. Once pass the tipping point where the upward momentum in price, deflation and stagflation will kick in and that is something we cannot afford. The effects comes in only after many years.

Take a look at my favorite beating dummy, the US, the land of the free. Not that we will be like them if we vote for the opposition but this is what bad policies can do. After 911, they had tighten immigration policies, kept the same policies that the opposition are selling and where are they now?

http://www.shadowstats.com/

1) A housing bubble that had not completely deflated since 2008
2) Real unemployment over 20%
3) Real inflation well over 6%
4) Obama care remained unfunded, a promise that cannot be kept
5) FT brain drain crippled their knowledge industries
6) Heavy taxes drove out their rich and large companies
7) SME were wiped out
8) Food stamps use had grew to ...
http://www.dailyjobsupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/Food-Stamps-Nations.jpg
9) US dollar had plunged to toilet paper status.
http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/

After reading wider and gaining a big picture view, I had arrived to the conclusion that we should always vote for the best policies for our country. There is no way to teach economics or fiscal responsibility over a short time. I didn't like to take things at face value, I do my own research.

In time, you will understand drawing 60 billion for the reasons raised by SDP is unsustainable and likely to be wasted.

PAP will make a bunch of very bad salesmen complete with equally bad PR skills despite their merits. They are not selling their achievements, current projects or their future plans.

Turn the question around and ask the opposition, not the achievement or projects but just the future plans. I find that their populist policies could not met my expectations.

I don't see a future with them at their current state. I am not pro-PAP but the opposition need to have more substance over form. It is very easy to attack one and the burden of proving innocence lies with the victim. Also everyone can complain with 20/20 hindsight.

Did the opposition demonstrate an understanding of global challenges and how we should tackle them? Or go back in history and understand how we had arrived with the current policies? Or study the impact of the very policies that they are selling?

Out on the streets and internet, PAP looks like a piece of crap, as painted by the opposition. Somehow, I didn't see people starving, loses a job, got no place to stay, flats collapsing, stop buying their next car, go for the Xth holiday for the year, get a new pet, going for fine dining, buy a new designer bag, drop out of school because school fees are too high and so on and so forth.

Thursday, May 5, 2011

Who are the foreigners?

I knew of many foreign students and foreign talents who eventually became PRs and then later Singapore citizens. Providing education actually helps a lot to sell Singapore a lot too. So far, for the foreign students that I knew of, only 1 went back to Malaysia. The rest settled down here and eventually contributed to the economy.

My work place is full of foreign students and foreign talents who did the same thing. They ended up as citizens, and they brought the rest of their sisters, brothers and friends. They don't send much money back home any more as their immediate family are now in Singapore and the next generation is all Singaporeans.

Can you imagine how much did their country of origin lost? They had lost healthy, educated and productive people in their prime to join our country, first as a foreign worker, later as a PR then a citizen. Their government had invested in them in many ways, education, health care etc. What did they got in return? Nothing much except maybe a good bye.

That's what we are, Singapore has and will always been full of foreign workers and immigrants. Look at history, it was the British who built a port with foreign workers on Malaysia land. Those foreign workers later vastly outnumbered the locals and eventually declare themselves as a nation. The same foreign workers are from all over the world, India, Indonesia, China, Europe etc etc.

I do not understand why suddenly we have to be so adverse towards foreign workers. During different periods, the source of people changes, be it Malaysia, Indian, or China, it will still be the same for us. We learn to integrate and work as a nation.

The populist idea that foreigners are taking our jobs and using our resources is nothing but distorted truths in the perception of history of Singapore. Can you read aloud your pledge and be reminded what Singapore is about?

We, the citizens of Singapore, pledge ourselves as one united people, regardless of race, language or religion, to build a democratic society, based on justice and equality so as to achieve happiness, prosperity and progress for our nation.


This is one of the many reasons, that the more I heard from the opposition's populist, short sighted and ignorant policies, the less I am willing to cast my vote for them.

This was what we had done since 1819. Come 2011 and more, why will it be different when it had served us well?

Why I started writing politically charged articles suddenly when I usually don't even care less

I felt that the problem is that people voting for opposition to give them a "voice" for "change" without understanding how much power is actually given to them and question their ability to deliver.

Voting for a party does not just give them a "voice", but a chance for them to deliver on their policies (if it's good, i don't mind). But what if the policies are unsound? And the voice becomes noise?

Sure PAP is not perfect, they have questionable policies sometimes too, but we are here today because they done their job mostly well so far.

I don't score 100% for my exams but I don't get penalised for losing 25 marks either because it's still a distinction. (Ok, I lied, I am a lousy student)

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Fiscal responsibility

For me, I will vote for the best policies offered. Unfortunately, the opposition are just offering populist policies which are unsustainable and fiscally irresponsible. How can those programs be funded without incurring a mountain of debt, how can the budget be balanced, without causing disruption to the economy and even hurt the very people that the policy is suppose to help?

Almost every country in the world with state welfare, pension schemes, minimum wages ended up worse off. Every policy and program needs to be paid for. For the majority of the people who do not understand much about economics, little did they know that the debts will be simply be incurred and kick down the road.

The opposition could not demonstrate any understanding of budgeting and fixing the root of the very problem that they are burning PAP with. Inflation.

The root of many of the issues is inflation. Can a government "control" inflation and reduce prices? Did the opposition ever mention the cause of inflation and how to handle it?

When I heard of plans such as drawing from our reserves, magically conjuring money out of the air, without thoughts on how to replenish the money spent or even getting value out of it, I knew the opposition policies will doom us as a nation.

I seriously doubt the opposition are actually evaluating the cost of implementation and the returns of the policies that they had borrowed from the rest of the world. The ideas are not original, nor are the problems associated with them.

Using SDP's "solutions" as an example,
The SDP’s solutions

To overcome this problem and help Singaporeans meet daily expenses, the SDP proposes the following measures:

1. Lower prices of our daily use of various items and services by:

  • reducing the GST from 7% to 3% and abolishing the GST for essential items such as rice, oil, medicines, etc,
  • lowering your PUB bills by at least 50%,
  • making sure that our public hospitals reduce charges and stop making a profit from Singaporeans,
  • bringing down bus and MRT fares by at least 20%, and
  • ensuring that the government increases public expenditure for the poor.

2. Increase the wages of workers and employees through schemes like Minimum Wage.

This will put more money into the pockets of Singaporeans. Higher incomes mean greater spending power for Singaporeans. This will benefit businesses and help the economy to become stronger.

3. Implement the Singaporeans First Policy.

We want to rely more on Singaporeans and less on cheap foreign labour. The high number of foreign workers presently in Singapore will only lower wages further because if there are more workers in the country, then employers can pick and choose the ones who will work longer and longer for less and less.

We must stop the PAP from raising our population to 6.5 million because this island cannot cope with so many people.

So help us to help you keep the cost of living to an affordable level. Support the Singapore Democrats for a more secure and brighter future.


  1. Lower prices of our daily use of various items and services by: reducing the GST from 7% to 3% and abolishing the GST for essential items such as rice, oil, medicines, etc,

    The money spent in the programs and the tax not collected requires another source. The countries which implemented such policies ended up increasing other taxes and personal income taxes. Eventually the expenses kept ballooning out of control.

  2. Lower prices of our daily use of various items and services by: lowering your PUB bills by at least 50%,

    Populist policies like subsidising energy costs such as fuel, water and power had already caused big issues with budgeting in neighbouring countries. They had quickly learn that even if they do process the natural resources, subsidising the cost only promote wastage and increase the squeeze on supply.

  3. Lower prices of our daily use of various items and services by: making sure that our public hospitals reduce charges and stop making a profit from Singaporeans,

    Public hospitals need to be subsidised to reduce charges. The taxpayers will have to foot the bill. If you squeeze margins, without subsidising the cost, the good doctors, nurses and equipment will move to the private hospitals, who have no obligations to make it any cheaper when they knew public hospitals are slums.

  4. Lower prices of our daily use of various items and services by:bringing down bus and MRT fares by at least 20%, and

    Same logic as point 2. As what I had written in a previous blog post, the operators will not want to see reduction in profit from previous levels. They will cut manpower, employ more foreigners, reduce frequency and kill off unprofitable routes.

  5. Lower prices of our daily use of various items and services by:ensuring that the government increases public expenditure for the poor.

  6. Too generic to comment on.

Their policies were also native and laughable. I will rather call their boomerang policies because I I see that they will just come around and hit our ass.

1. Re-calibrate our tax structure.

Singapore should bring up its tax bracket for top earners closer to the 30 percent mark like Canada, Germany, and Japan. The increased revenue collected from higher tax rates could go towards funding social programmes such as increasing the Public Assistance Scheme for the poor.

In addition, we should lower and vary the GST rate for different goods. Purchase of basic food items as well as other basic necessities should not be taxed while the GST for luxury items should be increased.

In 2008, the PAP Government abruptly abolished taxes on estate duty. Inheritances are taxed when individuals die and pass on their possessions. The Singapore Democrats propose the reinstatement of the estate duty tax for the wealthiest 20 percent in Singapore, both for citizens and non-citizens. Revenue from such a tax can be used to pay for programmes like retrenchment benefits described below.

Unfortunately, the wealthy are also the smartest people around when it comes to tax evasion. Putting such laws in place only drive them to get creative. For a good example, look at again my favorite punching bag, the United States. Many of the wealthy simply migrate to another country with more favorable laws. Personal gains can be creatively managed by using the cover of off-shore companies etc.

What happened in US is that instead of gaining any tax from the wealthy, US actually LOST taxes in the long run. The tax burden ends up where? The not-so-smart public who do not have the means or ability to dodge the bullet.

Such laws only served to make things look pretty to the majority to us but instead the wealthy will just take it as a we-are-not-welcome-here law.

2. Introduce Minimum Wage.

Paying indecently low wages in high-cost Singapore not only dehumanises our workers, it also creates insecurity among the workforce which threatens productivity.

Minimum wage is the lowest amount of wages an employer may legally pay to an employee. Based on a wage level of $300 per week, the official minumum wage for Singapore would work out to $6.80 per hour. This amount would be applicable to the lowest of the low-wage income earners.

Some fear a minimum wage policy because such legislation would drive wage costs up, cutting into profit margins. But increasing the wage levels of workers increases the spending power of workers which will stimulate consumption, benefiting businesses.

Minimum wage also increases the productivity of the workers as they can focus on their jobs instead of being distracted with having to find supplementary income because of low and inadequate wages. It also reduces poverty and want which can breed mistrust and resentment towards management thereby lowering quality output of work.

Most of all minimum wage prevents workers from being exploited and allows prosperity to be shared by all.

Today over 90 percent of countries across the world have minimum wage in one form or another. The few countries that have no laws or regulations on minimum wage are Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Tonga, Brunei, Somalia, and, of course, Singapore.

Most economists today agree that the negative effects of such a policy to employers as well as employees are relatively minor. Even Hong Kong has just passed a minimum wage bill.

The flip side of such policies is that the minimum wages will become effectively the maximum wages. Jobs will be lost to foreigners who will take up the jobs for minimum wages which locals will shun. Prices of goods and services will soar as businesses pass the cost to the customer. Price inflation kicks in and ends up hurting the very people the law is suppose to help.

Worse yet, the number of illegals and over stayers will also climb to fill in the positions which the minimum wages is too high to be paid for. Why pay $6.80 for a cleaner when you can pay $3?

How about reducing the number of workers and demand free overtime? Someone else will take the job if compliance is not met.



I can go on and on but in the end, please open your eyes and read deeper. Populist policies are easy to sell, but impossible to implement and run. If complaining, finger pointing and populist policies are all the opposition parties are about, I should start my own too !!!

Announcing the ...

AXIS OF EVIL AND FINANCIAL DOOMSDAY PARTY !!!

Featuring ...
  1. Completely abolishing national service
    Why waste our precious youth? The SAF will be manned by cheap labour from across the world who will gladly die as cannon folder.

  2. Doing away with GST AND income tax (Also name any tax you hate)
    The smart way is to sell more government bonds to MAS. The tactic is simple. Government needs money? Issue bonds which will be purchased by MAS who in turn uses the bonds as an asset to generate more credit to buy more government bonds.

  3. Cheaper public healthcare
    We will recruit cheaper doctors and nurses who may or may not understand or speak English to serve you. Biopolis will now produce drugs at cost price with complete disregard to international patents for the public! We will also legalised the purchase of organs from foreign countries to make sure that our citizens stay alive longer.

  4. Free public transportation for all
    All transport companies will be nationalised except for taxi companies. As a sweetener, ERP and COV will be removed since public transportation should be more attractive as it will now be free.

  5. CPF will be abolished
    We trust our citizens to be able to manage your own savings and will not need the government to babysit you and risk insufficient returns on your compulsory savings known as CPF.

  6. No need for minimum wages or pension scheme
    As long as you are a citizen, you get a monthly amount credited into your bank account. You only need to prove that you are alive and kicking.

  7. Cheaper public housing
    Why wait for BPO? Or pay for sky high COV? The forested area will be cleared to build more flats and it will be faster than buying sand to reclaim land.

  8. Even cheaper and better education
    We will employ more foreign talents to incubate our own young talents. This way we can use the same budget and still reduce the teachers to student ratio per class. And better yet, we will revert to 2 school sessions a day to DOUBLE the efficiency of the teachers.
Oops I did not hand in my papers in time to sign up for this election 2011. Please vote for me next time !