Almost bought a few 1kg "coins"

I was on the verged of getting a few of those shiny silver "coins" for myself. Damn this guy in the picture got so many of ... my preciousssss.

After staring at pictures of silver coins on Monday night, I had decided to add on more silver @ USD$43.44 using the UOB silver savings after deciding against buying the physical coins and bars. The premiums for physical silver is 20% to 50% on top of the spot price! That's wicked! According to Gary (the guy who got me interested in silver), I had decided that it is worthwhile to risk buying more from UOB as the risk of default is low.

Not long after, silver hit a new high at USD $43.8, which was truly amazing. It took only 2 days to break the $43.5 resistance level. Give it a bit more time for gold to crack the USD $1500 barrier and it will drag silver to another new high.

For those waiting for a better price to buy, good luck with that.

Silverish shiny rocks got even more shinier

While looking for an image for shiny rocks, I ended up with a "Sexy Shiny Silver Metallic Short Catsuit Costume". Ahem, back to the topic, and forget the distraction above (stop staring), the shiny rocks that I had bought in proxy via the UOB silver savings account had made a unrealised gain of 25% in less than 6 weeks.

And here is the not so sexy version of the silver chart

While preaching the all goodness of the ever more shiny rock which kept getting shiny while doing basically nothing on its own, I came across a few common questions.

1. Q. Silver is very expensive now. Experts says that you should buy only on a substantial retracement / correction in price.
   A. Ever since the price left the $19 range in Sept 2010, the price had moved on to $43 in a blink of the eye. If this is a regular fiat currency, stock, bond, some other non-silver/gold commodities or whatsoever, it might actually have a meaningful retracement / correction. However go open up a silver chart and it will take a 126% retracement to go back to the last major support at $19. The last retracement 18 days, and then the next only 8 days, and who knows how long is the next one. Looking at the chart, you will almost never be able to get a better price from buying at a retracement.
   
   Frankly, I was also thinking of buying more on a retracement, but I am already wanted to /wrist myself for not believing in myself and bought more when it was $34.4.
   
   
2. Q. I don't believe you. I bet that you will lose $$$ in silver.
   A. If you are so sure, go and take a short position silver now. I will take the other end of the trade by taking a long position. At the unbelievable pace it is climbing, the year end $49 target is not a joke. If silver is a fiat currency, I would have already done a massive short on it, but nope, shorting silver on the long term will bankrupt you for sure.
   
   
3. Q. But people lost money in gold and silver!
   A. Did the same sources tell you those people were also doing leveraged speculative trades on gold and silver, and probably did not have the knowledge on how to manage a trade?
   
   
4. Q. $49 is impossible! $40 is already very high and more than double of $19. It's unsustainable and will collapse. Expert all says that.
   A. Those are the same experts who claimed the same when silver was at $10, $20, $30, $40. If these experts are so spot on, then why are they so damn broke and still working for a pay check to write nonsense?
   
   Here is my expert source whom I regretfully did not heed his advice 2 years ago on taking a long position on commodities. Jim Rogers!
   
   
5. Q. Ok, then how do I buy?
   A. Since there is almost no best time, and it is impossible to time the entry, you might as well do it blindly. I am talking about an unleveraged saving accounts dominated in silver, not much to risk here.
   
   
6. Q. What happens when it hits $49? Will it stop and roll over and take a dive? Should I sell then? Will it be the end? A cliff? Doomsday?
   A. In reality, $49 is the nominal high based on the previous high in 1980s after adjustment for inflation. Does it mean it will stop there? I got no idea frankly. I probably hold till it reached the moon's orbit.
   
   
7. Q. I still don't know what to do.
   A. Get out of anything denominated in US dollars at the very least. It is destined for eternal doom in the pits of hell. Frankly Euro also looks like the same case too.
   

Buying the poor man's gold

During the get-a-life-day (WoW maintenance day) on 1 March, I went out for a steamboat dinner at Ang Mo Kio central with Jia Lun. As usual, the topic was on how bad our job sucks and the doom and gloom in the world.

So it eventually boiled down this. With all the bad stuff happening in the world, is there anything we can do to take advantage of the situation? It wasn't long that the topic shifted to gold and silver, and particularly silver.

While trying make comparisons between FX, commodities, gold and silver, I found myself selling the idea of investing in silver more and more.

Why buy shiny rocks?
1) But shiny rocks are not sexy! Nobody buy rocks! They have limited industrial uses, and do nothing but shines! Gold and silver are the REAL money acknowledged by civilisations across the world for thousands of years. Fiat currencies are not, which lead us to...

2) While you can mine gold and silver, you can print paper currencies even faster. In the age of computers, you don't event need paper to print "money". Some broke central banks can go to a computer and add a couple of zeroes. Can you do that with gold and silver? Nope. Ever heard of quantitative easing? Money supply? Or the scale of the rampant money printing? US, UK, China, Europe and Japan...just to name a few are printing money out of the air faster than ever. Hyperinflation will come, it's a matter of time.

3) While the golden brother is obviously the most popular choice for investment, silver price movement is closely correlated with gold. This correlationship lead us to ...

4) Silver has more upside to it. The gold silver ratio will send it higher. Silver is a lagging brother behind gold, and the pull towards gold is not over yet.

5) And of course, I cannot afford to buy gold. At USD$1400+ per ounce, it's way beyond my means. The poor man's gold, still shiny without the golden halo works well at USD$34ish.

6) Nay, putting my $$$ in the bank is safer...until you realise that due to inflation and the useless saving rates, you are actually losing money by doing so. By the power of inflation, for every $100 you have in the bank, you automatically lose $2.80 annually (2011 projected 2.8% inflation rate for SG). Ouch? Or put it the other way, if you don't get at least a 2.8% pay raise this year, you are actually working for less. Everything you own, cash in bank, property etc loses value in the same way. What else can you do? Demand a pay raise! Bang tables, flip tables, smash something!



Finally the next day, I ran out of reasons not to buy silver. I went to UOB and opened a silver savings account with some of my savings which were rotting in my POSB account. So enjoy the chart below of my journey with the shiny rock.

Impact on markets due to recent events

Reuters has a nice interactive graphics on the effects of the recent events in Egypt, Libya and Japan.

Reuters lovely chart here

*Hint...buy silver now*

Sayonara Japan, maybe forever

Last year in November 2011, I had a vacation in Japan with my sisters. While trying very hard to stick to our itinerary and avoid getting lost in Tokyo city, I made a remark to my sister, Shiyun that the Tokyo that we were looking at was likely to be at its peak in modern history.

At that point of time, I was thinking along the lines of macro economics, like aging population, economic issues and their low reproduction rates (despite having an insane amount of porn in their media).But little did I knew, that the statement that I had made would had turned so true so soon. Things are now going downhill with such ferocity for Japan, that it is totally unreal.

On 11th March 2011, the forces of nature shook Japan with a massive 8.8-9.0 earthquake (depending on who you listens to), ravaged her with towering tsunamis, and then end the insult with an upcoming nuclear disaster involving 6 reactors.

The chains of events that had unfolded so far pretty much set what I had said to my sister in concrete. The Japan that she had visited will never be the same again. Probably by tomorrow, nuclear fallout would be spreading from the doomed power plant. That will send Japan into the Great Depression v2.0 faster than I thought, and with certainty.

By the way, you can kiss goodbye to the Japan holiday idea for a decade or so if the nuclear plant starts releasing nuclear fallout as prophesied.

Great depression V2.0

It has been years after I started to explore the financial markets, looking for a greener pasture instead if climbing the boring corporate ladder. Forex trading is still my main focus but I couldn't tame the beast just yet.

As each financial market is entwined with another, I eventually dug more into macro economics. While doing some research on macro economics and through the studying of the 2008 collapse of the sub-prime market which triggered a chain of crazy bubbles explosions, I learn that things are not well now. I can go on and on but let's summaries this quickly.

The worst is yet to come. The rampant debasement of the fiat currency which is the world reserve currency call the US dollar is on the verge of pushing the world into the next Great depression and maybe even WWIII.

It's a doom and gloom story here is my prediction for 2011 and beyond.
1) The official inflation rate 2011 estimate of 2-4% will be a joke. It will beyond 5%. Everything will increase in price.
2) Most currency will fall in value in relation to gold and silver.
3) There will be more wars, civil wars, border disputes, unrest, protest, and basically lots of angry people all over the world.
4) Watch your petrol price. It is going to soar.

So what to do?
1)Dump US dollar, anything that is denominated in USD$ is going to look really sad.
2)Buy gold and silver. Not the jewelery type but ETF, 99% bullion, 99% coins, UOB silver & gold saving accounts.

Prices of gold and silver are going through the roof. Grabs yours today.


3) Hang on to your government job if you have one.


Things are not so rosy this year.

Collateral damage

While doing my job as a all-in-one IT guy, there are so many times that I had came across issues which I could have make my own life easier by letting them go but didn't. It involves rubbing salt into old and fresh wounds, opening cans of worms and Pandora boxes, stepping on toes, jumping over people's heads, crossing hostile territories and getting death threats.

Ok I admit that I am making up the last one. Anyway, the benefits are there for the organisation to reap while I siphon some cash in return, making it a fair trade. But playing the devil with good intentions does require human sacrifices. I prefer to call them collateral damage, which could range from the lightest form as extra work for people, making people look bad to making people disappear.

Lately I claimed my latest victim, who was caught red handed in the cookie jar, and will end up exiting the organisation in shame. What did I gained? Nothing much except some extra work and the satisfaction of tasting blood. How about the organisation? Well this latest exploit bought them a few more weeks of time to drag their feet to get things done through the slow moving bureaucracy.

I am sure during the course my career in the organisation, more people will be crucified and sacrificed in the pursue of the betterment of the organisation .. and myself.

Next time, be wary of the IT guy next to you. You have been warned.

How fast can a reward turned sour?

Somewhere around 15 minutes.

During last month department meeting, I got a surprise when my group head Mr See announced that I had won a newly created reward. This reward was meant for recognizing one person per department who had slaved the most to contribute to the department. I guess either my hard work and commitment to work had got me something to show for it. But instead, it is my lack of social life had came back to haunt me.

I opened up the envelop and read the content of the letter inside. The reward was a stay in one of the YTL luxury resorts in the region ... for 2. That's about when all the euphoria sunk to the deepest hole in the oceans.

Ok, let's review the conditions.

1. To be used within a year.
   Sounds fair.
2. For a stay for about 2 days/1 night.
   Hmm no transport? Some of the resorts are really far out. No problem though.
   
3. Employee must be present with employee pass.
   Cannot sell or give away to anyone. I must be present to check in. Ahh no trading or Ebay. Oh wait, must be employee pass! That means I cannot quit to claim it.
   
4. For 2 person
   Ok this is the worst part. I can't give it to my parents because of condition 3. If I bring my sisters, I need to pay for an additional headcount. Not all resorts have the capacity to allow a 3rd person in the room provided.
   

And with the above conditions, the reward quickly turned sour. I had a few options.

1. Let it lapse.
   Hope everyone forget it.
   
2. Forcibly give it away.
   Tell my department head that I don't want the reward.
3. Go alone.
   I rather stay at home then.
4. Go with sisters.
   I got to cough up extra $$$ to rope in my youngest sister because she will go bankrupt after the upcoming Tokyo trip in November.
5. Go with a buddy.
   Gayyyyy.
   
6. Get a girlfriend and go.
   ... and risk being labeled as a wolf.
7. Go with the other winners.
   Most of them are attached, married, wrong age group or are guys.
   

Not long after, HR decided to send out a email broadcast to everyone to announce the winners of the rewards. So, whenever someone came around to say congratulate me, the (heart) pain revisited me. Ouchie.

Anyway, got to make a choice, and I made it Tembok Bali, the spa resort.

Bodyguards and Assassins : After thoughts

Warning : Spoilers alert + crappy commentaries

In the movie, Sun Yat-Sen went to Hong Kong to hold a meeting to convince a group of Qing Dynasty haters to organise an uprising throughout China simultaneously. Empress Dowager Cix sent a team of assassins to murder Sun Yat-Sen while a local Hong Kong business man Li Yu Tang formed a cracked team of mainly rickshaw pullers and printing press employees to play defense.

The action started after 1.5 hours of character building. Somehow, Li Yu-Tang managed to pull off several miracles, and eventually bought enough time through a decoy mission for Sun Yat-Sen's meeting to be completed.

Here are some highlights.

• A Shaolin monk, Wang Fu Ming who was like the Orient version of the Hulk, smashed through groups of assassins while taking so much damage that I thought he should have died in two scenes before he actually died.
  
  
• Performed hardening roof and sides of the rickshaws used in the convey but neglected to add an extra armor plate to protect the back of the passenger.
  
  
• Get a incestuous opium powered begger Mr Liu played by Leon Lai to hold off an entire team of assassins ... alone using a metal fan with fatal results to everyone including himself.
  

After watching scenes after scenes of heroics, I realised that all these could had only happened because of the lack of communication technology in the past. The events depicted in the movie occurred almost a hundred years ago, when the only form of long range electronic communication technology available was the telegraph. So how could this be done better (in Singapore's context) today?

1. Use a conference call instead of a meeting. Skype? MSN?
2. Employ Cisco Certis guards instead of rickshaw pullers.
3. Cordoned off the paths used by the convoy instead of leaving it to fate.

It's not bad for a Chinese movie, so catch it on DVDs soon if you have not done so.

A IT Infrastructure Guide to handle a confirmed virus infection for managers

As a general rule of thumb, the more computers you have in your network, the higher the chance of getting hit by a nasty bug. So what happens when you are actually hit by a nasty 1 year old worm?

Put yourself in the shoes of a IT Infrastructure manager, what will be your response ? You can select more than one choice.

1. Panic.
2. Continue to chit chat.
3. Believe that your last anti-virus upgrade had covered all machines.
4. Blindly trust that the sales pitch from your anti-virus vendor that the anti-virus is a prevent-all and cure-all which will also solve the world's crisis.
5. Say "Trust me", turn around and call the anti-virus vendor to log a case, and start a anti-virus scan on a server with 20 users connected.
6. Spend 15 minutes to draft an email to tell users that "we are sorry but we need to shut your favorite server down".
7. Question whether will the virus spread when it did with a big bang less than a week ago.
8. Refuse to disconnect the server because "I will not have remote console access to it".
9. Backed with many years of Unix environment experience in a bank, decided that the Windows engineer recommendations to contain the virus was nonsense. (*Hint* Unix doesn't suffer from virus attacks)
   
10. Refuse to install the only patch known to fix a vulnerability exploited by the virus because it is "a untested patch" when the situation is, without the patch, the whole network and all servers are not usable.
11. Expect to see up a nicely drafted plan which will take hours to craft if you can get the relevant people together in time before taking any action.
12. Call a debriefing with security experts and walk out because it's lunch time.
13. Using phases like "didn't like your attitude", "you want to do things this way?" and "is this the way you do things?", rejecting all recommendations from the Windows engineer without coming up with any suggestions or plan,
    
14. Yanking out the network cables to isolate the problem is too drastic.
15. Killing the WAN link at the first hint of a major virus out break without spending time to analyse is not right.
16. Repeating the same mistake again in less than a week.

The more options you select, the higher your chance to be selected as a likely candiate for the position of a IT Infrastructure manager!

If you had selected none of the options, you are an IT engineer like me.