FX Trading Diary 27 Oct 2011

USD/CAD

Trade 1 : Buy 0.9907, SL 0.875, TP 1.0123

Leading time frame : D1-H4.
Supply zone is at 1.0123-1.0186
Demand zone is at 09881-0.9934.
Entry Type : Pending order
Strength : 2/2. Strong move away from level.
Risk/Reward : 2/2. Risk 32 pips, Reward 216 pips.
Big Picture : 1.5/2. Daily trend is up and H4 trend is down. This might be an impulse wave.
Retracement : 2/2. This level is fresh.
Time at level : 0/1. Long 1.5 days worth of basing
Arrival : 0.5/1. Decent move down.
Total score :8

This might take a while before it takes off if it ever triggers.

EUR/USD

I am looking for a sell at the supply zone for a entry to continue the downtrend. This might be tough considering the strength of the move upwards. This will be an confirmation entry.


Trade 1 : Sell 1.4135, SL 1.416, TP1.3884. TP2 1.3969

Leading time frame : H4-H1.
Supply zone is at 1.4114-1.4153
Demand zone is at 1.3942-3968
Entry Type : Market order
Strength : 1/2. Strong but wicky away from level.
Risk/Reward : 2/2. Risk 30 pips, Reward 172 pips.
Big Picture : 1/2. H1 trend is down and M15 trend is up. This will be a impulse wave.
Retracement : 2/2. This level is fresh.
Time at level : 0/1. Not much basing, and it is a wick where the move started.
Arrival : 0/1. No idea yet
Total score : 6 /10

EUR/JPY

AUD/USD

FX Trading Diary 18 Oct 2011

USD/CAD

My sell has not triggered, and the levels are still good. So, I had refreshed the orders for another week.

Trade 1 : Sell @ 1.032, SL 1.0352, TP1 1.015, TP2 0.995

Leading time frame : D1-H4.
Demand zone is at 1.0322-1.0348.
Supply zone is at 09881-0.9934.
Entry Type : Market order
Strength : 2/2. Strong move away from level.
Risk/Reward : 2/2. Risk 32 pips, Reward 170 / 370 pips.
Big Picture : 1/2. Daily trend is up and H4 trend is down. This will be a correction wave.
Retracement : 1/2. This level is not fresh but not penetrated deeply each time.
Time at level : 0.5/1. Short nice basing for 6 hours.
Arrival : 0/1. No idea yet
Total score : 6.5

Trade 2 : Sell @ 1.0404, SL 1.0433, TP1 1.015, TP2 0.995

Leading time frame : D1-H4.
Demand zone is at 1.395-1.42.
Supply zone is at 09881-0.9934.
Entry Type : Pending order
Strength : 1/2. Reasonable strength of move away from level.
Risk/Reward : 2/2. Risk 29 pips, Reward 254 / 454 pips.
Big Picture : 1/2. Daily trend is up and H4 trend is down. This will be a correction wave.
Retracement : 1/2. This level is not fresh.
Time at level : 0.5/1. Short nice basing for 4 hours.
Arrival : 0/1. No idea yet
Total score : 5.5

EUR/USD

I am looking for a sell at the supply zone for a entry to continue the downtrend.


Trade 1 : Sell 1.372, SL 1.3738, TP 1.358 (Stopped out @ Break Even)
It went +60 and it reversed to hit my stop at break even. /wrist 

Leading time frame : H1-M15.
Supply zone is at 1.3712-1.3728
Demand zone is at 1.355-1.36
Entry Type : Pending order
Strength : 1/2. Decent away from level.
Risk/Reward : 2/2. Risk 18 pips, Reward 140 pips.
Big Picture : 2/2. H1 trend is down and M15 trend is up. This will be a impulse wave.
Retracement : 2/2. This level is fresh.
Time at level : 0.5/1. About 90 minutes of basing.
Arrival : 0/1. No idea yet
Total score : 7.5 /10

Trade 2 : Sell 1.378, SL 1.381, TP 1.358

Leading time frame : H1-M15.
Supply zone is at 1.3768-1.3806
Demand zone is at 1.355-1.36
Entry Type : Pending order
Strength : 1.5/2. Decent away from level.
Risk/Reward : 2/2. Risk 30 pips, Reward 200 pips.
Big Picture : 2/2. H1 trend is down and M15 trend is up. This will be a impulse wave.
Retracement : 2/2. This level is fresh.
Time at level : 0.5/1. About 90 minutes of basing.
Arrival : 0/1. No idea yet
Total score : 8 /10

Previous trades
14 Oct 2011 : Buy @ 1.3652, SL 1.364, TP1 1.378, TP2 1.391 (Stopped out)
14 Oct 2011: Buy @ 1.3596, SL 1.3553, TP1 1.378, TP2 1.391 (Stopped out)

Stopped out !

FX Trading Diary 14 Oct 2011

Sorry to whoever was reading my FX blog, there wasn't much entries lately because I was tired. My sister is in hospital for an operation and I got a truck load of work to finish.

I have updated the format again, hope whoever is insane enough to read this will like it.



USD/CAD

I am looking for a sell at the supply zone at two levels.

Trade 1 : Sell @ 1.032, SL 1.0352, TP1 1.015, TP2 0.995

Leading time frame : D1-H4.
Demand zone is at 1.0322-1.0348.
Supply zone is at 09881-0.9934.
Entry Type : Market order
Strength : 2/2. Strong move away from level.
Risk/Reward : 2/2. Risk 32 pips, Reward 170 / 370 pips.
Big Picture : 1/2. Daily trend is up and H4 trend is down. This will be a correction wave.
Retracement : 1/2. This level is not fresh but not penetrated deeply each time.
Time at level : 0.5/1. Short nice basing for 6 hours.
Arrival : 0/1. No idea yet
Total score : 6.5

Trade 2 : Sell @ 1.0404, SL 1.0433, TP1 1.015, TP2 0.995

Leading time frame : D1-H4.
Demand zone is at 1.395-1.42.
Supply zone is at 09881-0.9934.
Entry Type : Pending order
Strength : 1/2. Reasonable strength of move away from level.
Risk/Reward : 2/2. Risk 29 pips, Reward 254 / 454 pips.
Big Picture : 1/2. Daily trend is up and H4 trend is down. This will be a correction wave.
Retracement : 1/2. This level is not fresh.
Time at level : 0.5/1. Short nice basing for 4 hours.
Arrival : 0/1. No idea yet
Total score : 5.5

EUR/USD

I am looking for a buy at the demand zone at two levels.

Trade 1 : Buy @ 1.3652, SL 1.364, TP1 1.378, TP2 1.391 

Leading time frame : H1-M15.
Supply zone is at 1.391-1.394.
Demand zone is at 1.345-1.366
Entry Type : Pending order
Strength : 2/2. Strong move away from level.
Risk/Reward : 2/2. Risk 12 pips, Reward 128 / 258 pips.
Big Picture : 2/2. H1 trend is up and M15 trend is down. This will be a impulse wave.
Retracement : 2/2. This level is fresh.
Time at level : 0.5/1. About 90 minutes of basing.
Arrival : 0/1. No idea yet
Total score : 8.5

Trade 2 : Buy @ 1.3596, SL 1.3553, TP1 1.378, TP2 1.391

Leading time frame : H4-H1.
Supply zone is at 1.391-1.394.
Demand zone is at 1.3557-1.3597
Entry Type : Pending order
Strength : 1/2. Reasonable strength of move away from level.
Risk/Reward : 2/2. Risk 43 pips, Reward 184 / 314 pips.
Big Picture : 1/2. H4 trend is down and H1 trend is up. This is a correction wave.
Retracement : 1/2. This level is not fresh. There is a light penetration.
Time at level : 0.5/1. Basing for 5 hours.
Arrival : 0/1. No idea yet
Total score : 5.5

FX Trading Diary 2 Oct 2011

EUR/USD

2 Oct 2011 2300 Hours:

The price action on last Friday was a full day slow burning of all the demand levels. This kind of slow burning of levels is the hardest to bet a bounce off. I lost 40 pips in a failed buy at 1.3537. If the pattern continues on market open, the demand at 1.336-1.34 will be burnt through as well, possibly reaching the next demand at 1.325-1.328. Will market push without a retracement and continue in the tight downward channel? No idea.

Gold and Silver buying opportunity is here

Ever plan to buy gold or silver? After the big drop at the end of last week, the prices had dropped to very attractive levels. My itch for owning physical silver is driving me nuts. Holding a physical silver coin in your hand is indeed very different experience. I just want to have some. Urgh !! It's like a craving, and it might just be a new addiction. It's shiny, shiny shiny.

I was looking at how the prices of gold and silver falling on Friday, and it reminded very much of what had happened in 2008 when the financial crisis exploded in full force. This article does a very good job explaining things. Whether that the drop is caused by hedge funds liquidation drive or a CME margin hike, it doesn't matter, this just created a good entry for buying gold.

How Gold Performs During A Financial Crash

Copper is on the verge of breaking down, perhaps similar to the previous 6 months drop in 2008 to the bottom. With the Euro zone threatening to blow up, this might be the indication that the next 6 months will not be a happy one, unless we are hedged accordingly. And so, this is another piece for copper.

Recession or Pessimism: A Look at Economic Indicators

FX Trade Diary 23 Sept 2011

EURUSD

23 Sept 2011 2337 Hours :

With price moving side ways again, it's time to stay away until some level are formed. There isn't any clear levels to trade, so I am staying out for now.

Trade idea #1 : Long 1.344,  SL 1.341, TP 1.36 and 1.37.
Countertrend retracement trade.

Trade idea #2 : Short 1.359, SL 1.362, TP 1.328
Short to next major demand. Not the best supply level though.

Trade idea #3 : Short 1.3785, SL 1.3815, TP 1.328
Short to next demand from a M15 supply.

FX Trade Diary 21 Sept 2011

New format and more content from today onwards!

I am decided to throw in my trade ideas and also write on my take on macro economics. Trade ideas will come with H1 and H4 charts.

EUR/USD

21/9/2011 1940 Hours :

Market appears to be entering a consolidating period. It may be a good idea to take a long at position at the demand zone at 1.3594-1.361. I will be monitoring the approach of the price into the zone. I am still holding my pending short at supply 1.3785, SL 1.382, TP 1.346.

Basically this is my trade idea for the next day or two. Please do not trade this. This is not 4D.

EURCHF

21/9/2011 1940 Hours :

EURCHF is really a crazy pair after the announcement of the soft peg of the Swissy to the Euro. While the whole world wonders whether the SNB will really stick to their equally crazy statement, market rumors on Wednesday on SNB's intention to move the soft peg to 1.25 sent EURCHF rallying in a dizzying heights in a matter of minutes.

Market comments aside, this pair is not really trade-able but if you feel like taking a small bet, you might want to try the small demand zone at 1.214-1.216. This isn't really an ideal trade due to the massive pinbar sticking into the supply at 1.203, which might invalidate the idea that 1.214-1.216 is a valid demand zone. The rumors mentioned 1.25, but the valid supply zone is really at 1.26-1.266.

21/9/2011 2157 Hours :

This move towards the upside is not going to be sustainable. According to Reuters and Zerohedge, SNB sold 1500 tons of their 2500 tons inventory of gold recently, which is worth approximately 86.4 billion US dollars. The money from the sale is very likely used up in the crazy purchase of worthless Euros from 1.1 to 1.22. It does seem highly plausible that the US$90 billion (or was is in Swiss franc) used in the purchase of Euros was in fact, coming from the sale of the gold, which in turn was likely to be purchased by China and India. That doesn't give SNB much room as their war chest is therefore limited. It is likely that it will not be long before Mr Market continue to short EURCHF and SNB will have to resort to all out printing of the Swissy. Currency wars ahoy!

At near term, given the limit amount of ammo in SNB war chest, they could only spread fear and drive speculators to do their work for them. Perhaps 1.26 is possible but the downside back to parity is starting to look very frightening. If the drop does happen, it will happen in a very short span of time.

I really pity the Swiss people and curse their short sighted SNB. This is really the Brown's bottom version 2.

XAUUSD

21/9/2011 2130 Hours :

I got a couple of friends getting really interested in gold. I took a look at the prices of gold and saw that there is a very strong demand at 1692-1706. This means any hopes of going below 1700 will require nothing short of a gangbang or a economic disaster. Given that economic disaster is scheduled for 2012, the only way gold can move is towards 2000. If it ever hits 1700, do buy some of it.

As one of my friend likes to say, SELL HOUSE AND BUY! (Your neighbour's house too)

USD/CAD

21/9/2011 2311 Hours:

This pair looks like it will continue to consolidate in a upward channel. It should move into Supply at 1.001-1.006. Depending on the depth of the pentration of the supply zone, it may be possible to look for a short to supply at 0.98-0.984.

GBP//USD

21/09/2011 2335 Hours :

I had neglected this pair for a long time and realised my folly. It was in a clear down channel for so long. Never too late, there is still an opportunity to sell it into the next major demand zone at 1.551. There are 2 possible entry points for a sell position, supply at 1.572-1.575 and 1.578-1.58.

1. Entered pending sell at 1.579, SL 1.583, TP 1.551.
2. Entered pending sell at 1.573, SL  1.5765, TP 1.551.
   I am contemplating moving the SL to 1.583 to take a full swing down though.

FX Trade Diary 21 Sept 2011

EUR/USD

21/09/2011 00014 :

Definitely a classic /wrist trade day and Oanda broke my heart. The move towards 1.37 earlier was predicted to move from 1.361, which it did (And I never entered the trade due to cowardice). Then my pending order trigger on the sell side at 1.369, and promptly got stopped out at 1.372 by 1 pip. It then dive down for 120 pips in 2 hours, giving me a heart attack in the morning.  Dang, according to hindsighttrade.com, I missed 2 planned trades and got slapped with a 30 pips loss. Bummer.

Never mind, I got another sell order at 1.3785, SL 1.382, TP 1.346.

FX Trade Diary 19 Sept 2011

A new week, a new hope.

EUR/USD

19/9/2011 1954 Hours :

The week started with a brutal 100 pips gap down, taking out the demand at 1.37 at started to consolidate at 1.363-1.371 Let's see how prices react here. I am looking forward to a possible short opportunity at 1.3695-1.371 and 1.3785-1.38.

The context of today's trade is still short only. While I can't really say 1.37 is an ideal short, it is the top of the consolidation range, and part of the potential drop base drop to me.

FX Trade Diary 15 Sept 2011

EUR/USD

15/9/11 2150 Hours :

My pending short at 1.382 went for +50 pips before it got wiped out in a matter of seconds because of a news spike for +2 pips at breakeven. Fearing for the worse, I changed by short at 1.3913 to a rocket trade. The price almost went through the entire supply zone before bouncing out for +50 pips again. Gaaaa this is really bad luck. My last nights 2 (well)planned trades are now left in ruins.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/here-what-just-happaned

Basically, a couple of bankrupt banks in Europe and US had came together and announced to the world that they had came into an agreement to lend money to each other in US dollars.Yes, the situation is so desperate that a mere agreement to lend each other money can send prices moving.

Bernake : I have some freshly printed $$$
US banks : We will borrow that money at 0% interest
Bernake : Euro banks do come and join us!
Euro banks : Weeeeee !!!
Result = 140 pip move in 20 mins @ EUR/USD ... and a very unhappy me.

15/9/11 2240 Hours :

Ok, time to stop grumbling and instead, it is time to plan new trades. From the price action, the demand at 1.382-1.384 is exhausted and likely to have changed in a weak demand zone. The sell orders are probably exhausted there. Looking for a bounce off 1.392-1.395 for another sell.

Meanwhile I closed my rocket trade for +62 pips. Sigh. Dude, on hindsight (not a good idea), plan the trade, trade the plan and stick to it.

 15/9/11 2340 Hours :

Entered a pending sell at 1.3925, SL 1.395, TP 1.377. Trinchet is going to talk at 2am. Every time he opens his mouth, Euro dived out of his mouth. Hopefully the Trinchet trade will work like a charm.

USD/CHF

16/9/11 0012 Hours :

This pair went from no-brainer to non-tradable. Hands off this pair for now.