Saturday, March 31, 2012

3G Sucks In Singapore

Perhaps the most common complain that you can hear these days is the woeful state of the mobile 3G service in Singapore. No service provider is spared from the scorching comments from their customers.

So what had happened? Simply look at your favourite Telco's mobile phone offerings. Almost every phone offered these days are smart phones. The explosive popularity of smart phones in Singapore has completely outstrip the telco's ability to provide 3G data to then. Remember, Smart phones in Singapore uses the 3G service to quench their ever growing thirst for more data bandwidth.

For every user checking out their Facebook walls, whatsapp messages, words with friends, draw something, and twitter feeds, the more data bandwidth is required to connect to the internet.

Now the interesting part is that i suspect that the telco are using the same base stations that they has already previously installed all over Singapore for GSM service, for the 3G service. For each base station, it has an independent link to the internet. This link is shared among all the users in the area connected to the base station.

This means if there are too many smart phones users in the area, the base station will simply run out of data bandwidth while still showing full bars for 3G. Remember the bars are meant to show signal strength, not speed.

This is based on something that i am observing almost everyday. During peak hours, every time a fully packed train pulls into the station, internet days traffic went from ok to totally dead. As soon as the train pulls away, my internet connection confess back to life. Also every time I stray near AMK hub, my data connection drops dead as well. In both scenarios, the 3G bars are at a healthy max level.

So the i hope this explains why your mobile device simply don't hook up to the internet during peak hour in the train or stall in a busy shopping centre.

This might also be the reason why i never came close to busting the 12gb data limit imposed by my data plan from Stinktel.

As every telco had the same issue, the only solution is to move on to 4G as Laghub and M1 fare no better either. Or maybe we can force the telco to stop charging us a premium for 3G when they cannot provide sufficient data bandwidth at their end of the bargain.

Sunday, March 25, 2012

Will you trust your wealth to financial advisers?

It's a straight up "No" for me.

I got a general distrust of the financial advisers and planners I have met so far. Generally, they claim to be able to help with your financial but end up trying to sell a load of financial products to me. This is the hallmark of the typical salesman.

Let's apply some common sense and see why I don't think all these add up at all.
  1. Qualification and experience
    Slapping a CFA (Chartered financial analyst) certification on top of a salesman doesn't make things better. A CFA certificate is valuable in basic understanding of the financial markets but doesn't not mean that the CFA holder is able to help you to manage wealth.

    Things are worse when the financial planners are fresh graduates with little wealth management skills to speak of. Reciting lines from seminars and presentations does not imply true understanding of the subject.

    Further more, I find it hard to accept advice from someone without actual experience in managing wealth successfully.
  2. Conflict of interest
    Having little true financial analysis skills, many of these people claim to have an army of researchers performing all forms of analysis to find the best product to ... help you instead of maximising profits for their company and to get a larger commission in returns.

    However the problem is that the advisers and planners is not independent and is inclined to sell products offered by their employer. With the majority of the financial advisers and planners coming from the insurance and funds brokerage and their resellers, it makes sense that they will be interested in selling various forms of their primary products to you.

    Think about it, the more risky or lousier the product, more commission is needed as an incentive to promote and push the hot potato to the customers. A good product needs little promotion. Do you need a salesman to tell you that the iPhone is a great product?
  3. DiversificationOn the topic of investment, whenever some adviser or planner tried to discourage me from going into stocks and instead, diversify my risks my buying mutual funds, I always have this urge to ask them what is their understanding of diversification. In a nut shell, buying a couple of funds is not diversification, even it's across industries and countries.

    True diversification requires investment in difference asset classes, which are the following: equities (stocks), fixed-income (bonds) and cash equivalents (money market instruments), commodities and real estate.

    Putting all your money in mutual funds as your "investment" is generally a bad idea because the money is heavily vested in the equities and bonds market. Any shock to the economy typically sinks both of them together, albeit at different rates of decline. Any actual gains will be subjected to a million management fees conjured by the funds management. I got enough of the bullshit and took out every cent from these vampires.

    A FX coach, Thomas said this: "There is nothing mutual about mutual funds. They don't make losses when you do."
  4. Making the sales pitch
    The financial planners and advisers I had met so far are quite a disappointment in this expect. The usual approach will be a courtesy call to arrange for a catch up session in an attempt to find out your current ability to purchase more of their products.

    Usually they will have this new great product(s) that they are offering and you should sign up immediately. It can be a insurance policy that you do not really need, an upgrade to your policy, a new fund etc.

    The data presented will almost try to put the product is a positive light but a fair comparison with a similar competing product will never be provided.

    The sales pitch for funds can be really bad too. There is no market timing involved. Market timing, an important and key factor in any profitable trade is played down as not important or hard to do. Instead, dollar cost averaging is advocated instead. This completely goes against the common sense of buying low and selling high. Why will anyone buy something close to the historical high? The risk of going down is so much higher and typically not worth the possible drawn down ahead to realise a possible tiny gain. Using a chart without showing 2008 data is as good as lying.

    Oh wait, does these guys actually know how to read a chart? We go into that next.
  5. Charting
    I learnt that when dealing with anything to do with the financial world, charting is the number one skill required. For most of the general public, a chart with a positive trend line is all you need to know that the product is going to make you millions. Didn't everyone said that the trend is your friend? Unfortunately, that's also why so many people are losing money in the financial markets.

    Without going into details, let's stick to buying low and selling high. You need to know where was the historical low and high, and where you are now. If you are not sure where the market is now, get your favorite chart showing 5 years of data and get a 5 years old to answer you.
That sums it up my rumblings.

Disclosure: I had exited all my investments in mutual funds a couple of years back. Too much drawn down and a little net gain is not something I am interested in. I am a speculator in the spot FX and spot precious metal markets.

I want to save $10,000 a year.

I have this conversation with my Mother last night which makes me wonder whether personal finance should be taught to everyone.

It started with my Mother coming into my room, pondering aloud whether it is worthwhile for her to continue working at her job while complaining about the high cost of public transport in Singapore. I walked her through the maths and came into conclusions that transportation cost does not eat up her whole salary.

Knowing that my Mother isn't financially savvy, I continued to probe further on what is her expectations and learn that she is trying to save $10,000 a year when her basic annual take home salary is $9600.

From there, I tried explaining that in order to see an increase in personal wealth, you need to do the following:

  1. Cut expenses.
    Going on 2 overseas holidays a year is not exactly the best way to do so.
  2. Increase gross salary.
    Not possible for an uneducated worker near retirement age.
  3. Alternative income.
    Frankly, investment is not for everyone and speculation is even worse. Another part time job will kill her. The best I can do for her is to convince her not to put $50,000 in a fixed deposit for a measly $900 bucks. That's 1.8% interest in an environment that is expecting 2.5%-3.5% inflation rate in 2012.
I went on to say that going by the advice by financial planners is good but typically useless. You can find out your income and your expenses, but the will power to perform the 3 items above is all she needs. As long as she is proactively doing the 3 items, her bank balance will grow.

As expected, she ended up walking out of the room looking confused. This reenforce my conviction to teach my kids if any in the future the importance of financial education.